轨道尺度亚洲气候演化机理的数值模拟:历史与展望     

石正国  雷婧  周朋  任鑫 《第四纪研究》2020,(1):8-17

轨道尺度亚洲气候演化是古气候热点问题之一,其变化过程和机理对理解当前全球变暖下亚洲气候变化具有重要参考意义。最近几十年,基于黄土、石笋、湖泊等载体的轨道尺度亚洲气候重建研究获得显著进展,气候演化历史的基本框架已被构建,不同区域和指标记录之间的差异暗示了气候演化机理的复杂性。数值模拟作为研究气候动力学的重要工具之一,在轨道尺度亚洲气候变化中也得到广泛应用和快速发展。基于此,本文尝试对最近十数年轨道尺度亚洲气候演化机理的数值模拟研究做一简单总结和梳理。目前的数值模拟尚未对地质记录给出的各种变化特征、区域差异等现象,尤其是东亚夏季风的黄土和石笋差异、季风和干旱气候的耦合关系等,给出合理解释。因此,在未来工作中亟须涵盖多轨道旋回的高分辨率瞬变试验,结合良好定年的重建记录,以期对轨道尺度亚洲气候变化机理获得更深入完整的认识。  相似文献   

复杂载荷作用下立管触地段损伤管道的动力响应     

代云云  周晶  李志刚 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2020,(1):145-153

触地段(Touchdown zone, TDZ)是在役钢悬链线立管(Steel catenary riser, SCR)的关键部位,在复杂载荷作用下,极易形成损伤缺陷,其载荷寿命的评估是深海结构工程中的一个关键问题。本文以大型有限元软件ABAQUS为平台,运用损伤管道实体单元与土弹簧阻尼单元相互作用的模型模拟触地段损伤海底管道在复杂载荷作用下的动力响应,数值计算考虑了管-土相互作用过程中的材料非线性、几何非线性以及接触非线性。讨论了单一环向体积损伤位于触地段管道的不同位置时,触地段损伤管道在不同载荷作用下的动力特性及特征点的动力响应。结果表明,管道所受内外压力以及管道提升端的竖向位移载荷会影响结构的自振频率;体积损伤部位的动力响应较完好部位更剧烈;体积损伤的位置和动力载荷频率对管道动力放大系数的影响很大;当动力载荷的激励频率越接近结构基频时,损伤管道的动力响应及动力放大系数越大。  相似文献   

Photometric Follow-up Transit (Primary Eclipse) Observations of WASP-43 b and TrES-3b and A Study on Their Transit Timing Variations     

Sun Zhao  Ji Jiang-hui  Dong Yao 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2018,42(1):101-128

Two photometric follow-up transit (primary eclipse) observations on WASP-43 b and four observations on TrES-3 b are performed using the Xuyi Near-Earth Object Survey Telescope. After differential photometry and light curve analysis, the physical parameters of the two systems are obtained and are in good match with the literature. Combining with transit data from a lot of literature, the residuals (O ? C) of transit observations of both systems are fitted with the linear and quadratic functions. With the linear fitting, the periods and transit timing variations (TTVs) of the planets are obtained, and no obvious periodic TTV signal is found in both systems after an analysis. The maximum mass of a perturbing planet located at the 1:2 mean motion resonance (MMR) for WASP-43 b and TrES-3 b is estimated to be 1.826 and 1.504 Earth mass, respectively. By quadratic fitting, it is confirmed that WASP-43 b may have a long-term TTV which means an orbital decay. The decay rate is shown to be P? = (?0.005248 ± 0.001714) s·yr^?1, and compared with the previous results. Based on this, the lower limit of the stellar tidal quality parameter of WASP-43 is calculated to be ${Q^{\prime }}_{*}\ge 1.5\times {10}^5$, and the remaining lifetimes of the planets are presented for the different ${Q^{\prime }}_{*}$ values of the two systems, correspondingly.  相似文献   

基于数值模拟的再生水对地下水质影响实例     

崔瑜  吴泰然  周磊  周瑞静  杨巧凤 《地质通报》2018,37(7):1365-1373

为了探讨在再生水地表回灌条件下,再生水对地下水中氨素和主要盐分浓度变化的影响,选取现实存在的清河再生水湿地公园为例,以氨氮、Cl-离子为主要研究对象,利用Hydrus-1D溶质运移模型和Modflow、MT3DMSD耦合地下水模型,模拟了再生水长期利用后的地下水氨氮和Cl-指标变化情况。研究结果显示,再生水到达包气带底部时,水中氮氨、Cl-离子含量高于研究区潜水地下水中的相应指标含量,氨氮超出地下水质量Ⅲ类标准。预测5~20年后,潜水中氨氮超标面积不断扩展,20年后将达14km2,氨氮超标垂向延伸至第一层弱透水层;Cl-离子在潜水中不超标,但在湿地公园周边浓度有所增加。湿地公园再生水的长期地表回灌将给当地地下水质量带来负面影响。  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of percussive drilling          下载免费PDF全文

Alexandre Depouhon  Vincent Denoël  Emmanuel Detournay 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2015,39(8):889-912

This paper presents a novel dynamical model to analyze the long‐term response of a percussive drilling system. This departs from existing approaches that usually consider a single activation and bit/rock interaction cycle for the analysis of the process performance. The proposed model integrates the axial dynamics of an elastic piston and an elastic drill bit, a motion‐dependent pressure law to drive the piston, and a generalized bit/rock interaction law representative of the dynamic indentation taking place at the bit/rock interface. It applies to down‐the‐hole percussive drilling as well as top‐hole, with minor modifications. The model does not account for the angular motion or the hole cleaning, however. The model is first formulated mathematically; then, a finite‐dimensional approximation is proposed for computations. Numerical analyses of the model response, for a low‐size down‐the‐hole percussive system, follow. The period‐1 stationary response for the reference configuration is studied in detail, and parametric analyses assessing the influence on the rate of penetration of the bit/rock interaction parameters, the feed force, and the percussive activation parameters are conducted. These analyses reveal that the multiscale nature of the process is well captured by the model and recover expected trends for the influence of the parameters. They also suggest that a significant increase of the penetration rate can be achieved by increasing the percussive frequency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

一次华北暴雨过程中边界层东风活动及作用   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

吴庆梅  刘卓  王国荣  翟亮  丁青兰 《应用气象学报》2015,26(2):160-172

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°逐6 h分析资料、微波辐射计资料及FY-2E气象卫星及雷达探测资料,针对2013年6月4日发生在北京及周边地区的一次暴雨过程中边界层东风活动及作用进行了天气学诊断分析,结果表明:对流性暴雨过程伴随有源自东北平原的边界层东风活动,东风活动具有尺度小、降温明显和湿度大等特点。暴雨过程是边界层东风和中低空暖式切变线、偏南风急流和500 hPa短波槽共同作用的结果;东风湿冷空气的锋面抬升和地形抬升作用共同加强了中低层暖湿气流的辐合上升运动,同时东风冷垫和地形抬升作用触发了雷暴的再次发生,相应雷暴具有高架对流特点。东风气流起到了边界层水汽输送作用,中低层偏南暖湿气流为暴雨的产生提供了充足的水汽和不稳定层结条件。  相似文献   

CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND EASTERN ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON SYSTEM BASED ON FUZZY SYSTEMS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL INVERSION FORECAST     

洪梅  张韧  阎恒乾  葛晶晶 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(S1):34-45

Based on the adaptive network fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), methods to filter out the noise of impact factors from the main signal are discussed. Focusing on the abnormal weather conditions in 2010, we use the delay-relevant method to analyze the five members of the summer monsoon system that had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies from the observational data. ANFIS is suitable for research and simulation of subtropical highs that are difficult to describe accurately with dynamics, allowing the effect of five factors on the subtropical high anomalies to be examined. Our results show that the Mascarene cold high, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough had the largest effect on the subtropical high anomalies. Diagnostic analysis, with genetic algorithms (GA) and dynamical reconstruction theory, reconstructed the nonlinear dynamical model of the subtropical high and its main factors objectively and accurately from the sequence of observations in 2010. Furthermore, a dynamically extended forecast experiment is performed. The forecasts for the subtropical high area index, the Mascarene cold high index, the Indian monsoon latent heat flux, and the South China Sea monsoon trough index all show a strong short-term effect over less than 25 days. The forecasting trend is accurate, and the error rate is no more than 7%. Our results provide new insight and methods for research on the association between the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon system, and for the prediction of the western Pacific subtropical high index.  相似文献   

一种导航卫星中长期轨道预报方法     

周建华  杨龙  徐波  谢廷峰 《测绘学报》2011,(Z1)

基于神经网络混合建模的思想提出一种针对导航卫星的中长期轨道预报方法,在原动力学模型的基础上引入神经网络模型作为补偿,从而获得新的预报模型。在训练过程中神经网络通过学习动力学模型轨道预报误差来掌握其变化规律,并在预报过程中为动力学模型预报提供补偿,以提高预报精度。对GPS卫星动力学模型中长期预报误差的特点进行分析,然后根据所得结论提出混合模型的中长期(15 d以上)预报方案,最后通过对GPS卫星的仿真试验证明混合模型的改进效果,结果表明新方法在15~40 d的预报上表现出很好的改进效果。  相似文献   

基于DERF的SD方法预测月降水和极端降水日数   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

刘绿柳  孙林海  廖要明  杜良敏  李想 《应用气象学报》2011,22(1):77-85

针对动力气候模式对区域或更小空间尺度内的日降水预测技巧偏低的问题,应用最优子集回归 (OSR) 方法对国家气候中心业务化的月动力气候模式 (DERF) 输出的高度场、风场和海平面气压场进行降尺度处理用于降水预测,旨在提高预测准确率。1982—2006年交叉检验结果表明:OSR方法能显著提高降水预测技巧,其中11~40 d改善效果最为显著。在此基础上,应用一步法和两步法两种统计降尺度方法预测极端降水日数,交叉检验结果表明:两种方法均优于随机预测,冬季两步法预测技巧略高于一步法,夏季一步法略优于两步法。综合认为OSR,OSR结合随机天气发生器 (WG) 两种统计降尺度方法对月尺度降水或极端降水日数的预测均具有较高的技巧,可作为短期气候预测的重要参考信息。  相似文献   

不同海域影响热带气旋强度变化的环境动力因素对比   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王喜  余锦华 《热带气象学报》2011,27(3):387-386

利用1982-2007年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、月平均海平面温度(SST)资料和西北太平洋、北大西洋以及北印度洋热带气旋(TC)资料,对比分析了环境动力因素对不同海域TC强度在不同时间尺度变化的影响.结果表明,在各时间尺度上,TC强度变化与垂直风切变变化有密切的联系.在西北太平洋,使TC过程强度增强或减弱的风切变...  相似文献